# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 40-45M is dominating the market with an overwhelming 63.5% chance of winning. 35-40M follows in second place at 28.5%, while 45-50M sits in third with 4.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $95.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 40-45M (63.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 40-45M is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 64¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $28.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 35-40M (28.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 35-40M maintains a 28.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
• 45-50M (4.3%): Sitting in third place with a 4.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 45-50M, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~3.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 30-35M (0.3%), 50-55M (0.3%), and <25M (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 25-30M are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the number of views the next YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 24 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 24 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier.

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration.

The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video to be posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 40-45M currently trades at 63.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 25.8%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -37.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 55M+ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 10.9% — yielding an impressive +10.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 50-55M (EV Gap: +5.9%) and <25M (EV Gap: +4.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.