# of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “# of ChatGPT Outage Days in November 2026?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, <3 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 34% chance of winning. 3 follows in second place at 29.5%, while 5 sits in third with 18.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $13.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• <3 (34%): Currently commanding the highest probability, <3 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 34¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $5.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 3 (29.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 3 maintains a 29.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 30¢.
• 5 (18.5%): Sitting in third place with a 18.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 5, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~18%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 4 (11%), 6 (1.4%), and 7+ (1.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 4 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.

ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").

Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.

This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.

This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 3 currently trades at 29.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 11.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -18.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies <3 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 34% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 42% — yielding an impressive +8% EV Gap.