Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of November?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of November?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $140 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 91.8% chance of winning. $150 follows in second place at 86.7%, while $160 sits in third with 76.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $85.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $140 (91.8%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $140 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 92¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $150 (86.7%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $150 maintains a 86.7% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 87¢.
• $160 (76.5%): Sitting in third place with a 76.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $160, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $170 (63%), $180 (49%), and $190 (32.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $200 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of November 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.

For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.

If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome $140 currently trades at 91.8%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 86%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -5.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies $180 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 49% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 69.2% — yielding an impressive +20.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include $170 (EV Gap: +14.6%) and $160 (EV Gap: +10.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.