Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, November 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 77.6% chance of winning. October 30 follows in second place at 40.5%, while October 31 sits in third with 39.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $106.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• November 30 (77.6%): Currently commanding the highest probability, November 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 78¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $19.8K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 30 (40.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 30 maintains a 40.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 41¢.
• October 31 (39.5%): Sitting in third place with a 39.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward October 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes October 29 (37.5%), October 28 (24%), and October 27 (18.4%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like October 26 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome October 27 currently trades at 18.4%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 16.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies October 26 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 11.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 18.3% — yielding an impressive +6.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include October 31 (EV Gap: +3.4%) and October 28 (EV Gap: +2.3%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.