Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No release by November 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 64.5% chance of winning. November 17 follows in second place at 15%, while November 15 sits in third with 4.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $40.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No release by November 30 (64.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No release by November 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 65¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $25.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 17 (15%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 17 maintains a 15% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 15¢.
• November 15 (4.8%): Sitting in third place with a 4.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 15, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~15.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes November 28 (4.5%), November 24 (3.9%), and November 14 (3.7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like November 21 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 17 currently trades at 15%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 0.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -14.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies November 18 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 1% — yielding an impressive +0.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November 27 (EV Gap: +0.6%) and November 26 (EV Gap: +0.6%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.