Next GPT Terra (6.2+) released by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next GPT Terra (6.2+) released by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, February 28 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 38.5% chance of winning. December 31 follows in second place at 37.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• February 28 (38.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, February 28 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 39¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $556 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31 (37.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31 maintains a 37.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 38¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra or GPT-6.1 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Terra (released October 26, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6.1 Sol, or GPT-6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31 currently trades at 37.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 34.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies February 28 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 38.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 60.1% — yielding an impressive +21.6% EV Gap.