Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 98% chance of winning. November 30 follows in second place at 90.5%, while November 15 sits in third with 70%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $31.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (98%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 98¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $2.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 30 (90.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 30 maintains a 90.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 91¢.
• November 15 (70%): Sitting in third place with a 70% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 15, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-6 Sol or GPT-6.1 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Sol (released September 29, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 15 currently trades at 70%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 55.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -14.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.