Next Claude Opus released on...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Claude Opus released on...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, September 21 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 73.1% chance of winning. September 22 follows in second place at 13.8%, while September 24 sits in third with 6.3%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $151.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• September 21 (73.1%): Currently commanding the highest probability, September 21 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 73¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $72.4K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 22 (13.8%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 22 maintains a 13.8% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 14¢.
• September 24 (6.3%): Sitting in third place with a 6.3% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward September 24, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~6.8%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes September 23 (5.1%), September 28 (1%), and No release by September 30 (0.7%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like September 26 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.

Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome September 21 currently trades at 73.1%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 39.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -33.2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies September 22 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 13.8% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 26.2% — yielding an impressive +12.4% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include No release by September 30 (EV Gap: +7.5%) and September 23 (EV Gap: +6.4%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.