Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 45%+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 92.5% chance of winning. 50%+ follows in second place at 86.9%, while 55%+ sits in third with 45%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $91.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 45%+ (92.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 45%+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 93¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $27.1K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 50%+ (86.9%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 50%+ maintains a 86.9% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 87¢.
• 55%+ (45%): Sitting in third place with a 45% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 55%+, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 60%+ (12%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 60%+ are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.

The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 60%+ currently trades at 12%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 10.7%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 50%+ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 86.9% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 90.2% — yielding an impressive +3.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 55%+ (EV Gap: +0.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.