New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “New Hampshire Governor Democratic Primary Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Cinde Warmington is dominating the market with an overwhelming 96.5% chance of winning. John Kiper follows in second place at 3.2%, while Deaglan McEachern sits in third with 0.9%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $33.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Cinde Warmington (96.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Cinde Warmington is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 97¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $16.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• John Kiper (3.2%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, John Kiper maintains a 3.2% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3¢.
• Deaglan McEachern (0.9%): Sitting in third place with a 0.9% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Deaglan McEachern, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Tom Sherman (0.4%), and Donovan Fenton (0.2%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Tom Sherman are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Cinde Warmington currently trades at 96.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 59.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -37.1%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies John Kiper as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 3.2% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 22.2% — yielding an impressive +19% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Deaglan McEachern (EV Gap: +10.6%) and Tom Sherman (EV Gap: +9.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.