New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Chris Pappas is dominating the market with an overwhelming 89.5% chance of winning. Karishma Manzur follows in second place at 5.6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $162.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Chris Pappas (89.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Chris Pappas is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 90¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $72.0K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Karishma Manzur (5.6%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Karishma Manzur maintains a 5.6% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 6¢.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Chris Pappas currently trades at 89.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 69.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -19.7%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Karishma Manzur as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 5.6% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 18.8% — yielding an impressive +13.3% EV Gap.