Nationwide ground stop lifted by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Nationwide ground stop lifted by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, November 15, 12:00 AM ET is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,400% chance of winning. November 14, 12:00 PM ET follows in second place at 7,800%, while November 14, 12:00 AM ET sits in third with 7,750%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $10.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• November 15, 12:00 AM ET (9,400%): Currently commanding the highest probability, November 15, 12:00 AM ET is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,400¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $706 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 14, 12:00 PM ET (7,800%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 14, 12:00 PM ET maintains a 7,800% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 7,800¢.
• November 14, 12:00 AM ET (7,750%): Sitting in third place with a 7,750% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 14, 12:00 AM ET, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes November 13, 10:00 PM ET (5,050%), November 13, 8:00 PM ET (4,100%), and November 13, 6:00 PM ET (700%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like November 13, 10:00 PM ET are still attracting notable interest.

The FAA issued a nationwide ground stop for flights departing U.S. airports on November 13, 2026 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/13/us/faa-nationwide-ground-stop).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, or their authorized representatives officially announce that this nationwide ground stop is no longer in effect between market creation and the listed date and time (inclusive of the listed minute). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must communicate that the nationwide (all-airports) ground stop is cancelled or otherwise no longer in effect, including where it is replaced by narrower ground stops or other traffic management initiatives at individual airports or regions. Announcements that the ground stop is lifted for, or does not affect, specific airports, regions, or flights while the nationwide ground stop remains in effect will not count.

An announcement that the ground stop will end at a future time will not qualify until its effective time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FAA & the Department of Transportation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.