Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on September 24?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on September 24?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, $480 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,595% chance of winning. $490 follows in second place at 8,250%, while $500 sits in third with 4,450%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $6, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• $480 (9,595%): Currently commanding the highest probability, $480 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,595¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• $490 (8,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, $490 maintains a 8,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8,250¢.
• $500 (4,450%): Sitting in third place with a 4,450% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward $500, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes $510 (1,350%), and $520 (410%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like $510 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on September 24, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.

If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.

If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.