MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Republican 30%+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,825% chance of winning. Republican 25-30% follows in second place at 1,450%, while Republican 20-25% sits in third with 1,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $5.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Republican 30%+ (6,825%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Republican 30%+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,825¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $1.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Republican 25-30% (1,450%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Republican 25-30% maintains a 1,450% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,450¢.
• Republican 20-25% (1,350%): Sitting in third place with a 1,350% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Republican 20-25%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Republican 15-20% (430%), Democrat Wins (245%), and Republican 10-15% (90%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Republican 5-10% are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 MO-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.