Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City

$135.9K Vol
Sep 27, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
No 100.0%
Yes 0.1%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Sporting Kansas City is dominating the market with an overwhelming 17.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $135.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Sporting Kansas City (17.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Sporting Kansas City is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 18¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $22.5K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Sporting Kansas City17.5%$22.5K18¢83¢

Result Rules

This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 between Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Sporting Kansas City as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 17.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 22.3% — yielding an impressive +4.8% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Sporting Kansas CityBest EV17.5%22.3%+4.8%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 26, 2026

  • 09:00 PM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 1.639343 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

  • 08:59 PM
    ETeternaut4
    $16.00

    Bought 19.277105 No for Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-09-26? at 0.83

  • 08:54 PM
    WEWeareb
    $6.00

    Bought 9.836066 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

  • 08:54 PM
    RCRcolacola
    $25.00

    Bought 40.98 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

  • 08:54 PM
    MOMoo11
    $10.00

    Bought 16.393443 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

  • 08:40 PM
    CUcurrybrother
    $1.80

    Bought 2.95082 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

  • 08:38 PM
    VAVasiliiii
    $64.21

    Sold 78.31 No for Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-09-26? at 0.82

  • 08:35 PM
    VAVasiliiii
    $65.00

    Bought 78.313252 No for Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-09-26? at 0.83

  • 08:26 PM
    ——
    $2.21

    Bought 10.045455 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw? at 0.22

  • 08:25 PM
    ——
    $12.26

    Bought 20.098361 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

  • 08:08 PM
    YUyu6618
    $1,000.00

    Bought 2500 No for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.4

  • 07:42 PM
    CUcurrybrother
    $1.80

    Bought 2.95082 Yes for Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-09-26? at 0.61

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

US1
us391
Event PnL
-$100.00
Volume
$20,000.00
Positions
No
NE2
Ne8om
Event PnL
+$59.08
Volume
$11,815.17
Positions
YesNo
AN3
AnonymousUsername
Event PnL
-$12.22
Volume
$4,112.68
Positions
YesNo
GC4
GC-P
Event PnL
+$15.59
Volume
$3,118.05
Positions
YesNo
NM5
NM-P
Event PnL
+$14.45
Volume
$2,868.00
Positions
Yes
YU6
yu6618
Event PnL
-$12.50
Volume
$2,500.00
Positions
No
VE7
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$7.28
Volume
$1,296.36
Positions
YesNo
FL8
Flaznorp
Event PnL
+$26.52
Volume
$822.15
Positions
NoYes

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City"?

As of the latest update, Sporting Kansas City leads the field as the frontrunner with a 17.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $135.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags Sporting Kansas City as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 17.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 22.3% — an Expected Value gap of +4.8%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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