Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

$159.2K Vol
Oct 1, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
New York Yankees 54.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 45.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 44% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $159.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • NRFI (44%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 44¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $842 in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1NRFI44.0%$84244¢56¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, scheduled for September 23 at 7:05PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game.

This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies NRFI as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 44% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 44.7% — yielding an impressive +0.7% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFIBest EV44.0%44.7%+0.7%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 23, 2026

  • 11:32 AM
    HOHomeRunHazard
    $25.41

    Bought 44.58 Under for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 at 0.57

  • 11:19 AM
    JHjhkui
    $27.95

    Bought 49.910715 Over for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 at 0.56

  • 10:51 AM
    ADadamzig
    $106.00

    Bought 294.444445 Over for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 at 0.36

  • 10:01 AM
    $1.92

    Bought 4.363637 Over for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 at 0.44

  • 09:54 AM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 24.39 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 09:48 AM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 24.39 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 09:46 AM
    SRsrg3egr
    $10.20

    Bought 17 New York Yankees for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.6

  • 09:46 AM
    585826frff
    $6.97

    Bought 17 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 09:41 AM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 24.39 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 09:35 AM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 24.39 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 09:29 AM
    SIsirluca888
    $10.00

    Bought 24.39 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

  • 09:26 AM
    3434eefefd
    $4.00

    Bought 9.756098 Tampa Bay Rays for Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees at 0.41

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

HO1
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
+$28.38
Volume
$2,806.96
Positions
New York YankeesUnderUnder+1
ME2
mercury777
Event PnL
-$25.68
Volume
$2,469.70
Positions
OverTampa Bay Rays
JO3
jole24
Event PnL
-$6.56
Volume
$1,688.00
Positions
Tampa Bay RaysOver
TA4
TAIWANNUMBERONE
Event PnL
+$1.24
Volume
$1,676.16
Positions
New York Yankees
MO5
mooseborzoi
Event PnL
-$1.63
Volume
$1,043.57
Positions
New York Yankees
386
38791873984189
Event PnL
+$0.17
Volume
$568.35
Positions
Tampa Bay RaysUnderTampa Bay Rays
BO7
BoomLaLa
Event PnL
-$1.25
Volume
$500.00
Positions
Tampa Bay Rays
A08
0xa0f2…1848
Event PnL
+$1.98
Volume
$395.61
Positions
New York Yankees

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees"?

As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 44% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $159.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags NRFI as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 44% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 44.7% — an Expected Value gap of +0.7%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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