San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals

$132.9K Vol
Sep 22, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
St. Louis Cardinals 86.5%
San Francisco Giants 13.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 43% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $132.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • NRFI (43%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 43¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1NRFI43.0%43¢57¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for September 14 at 7:45PM ET:

This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game.

This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies NRFI as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 43% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 44% — yielding an impressive +1% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFIBest EV43.0%44.0%+1.0%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 14, 2026

  • 10:49 AM
    $51.50

    Bought 88.8 Under for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 at 0.58

  • 10:28 AM
    FOForecastication2
    $11.00

    Bought 20 Under for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 at 0.55

  • 09:55 AM
    MEmercury777
    $446.64

    Bought 950.297873 Over for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 at 0.47

  • 09:53 AM
    POPoetry
    $1.00

    Bought 1.886793 Over for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 at 0.53

  • 09:29 AM
    ALalandestroy
    $1,290.00

    Bought 2303.571429 St. Louis Cardinals for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals at 0.56

  • 09:21 AM
    NEnemed
    $1.00

    Bought 2.222223 San Francisco Giants for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals at 0.45

  • 08:53 AM
    FIfizzwont
    $25.00

    Bought 69.444445 St. Louis Cardinals for Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) at 0.36

  • 08:35 AM
    0X0xc92CA3e01ad489f732550B0912991d7beFFb6f15-1770260769185
    $69.78

    Bought 107.348485 Under for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 at 0.65

  • 08:17 AM
    FUfunnyday
    $13.50

    Bought 30 San Francisco Giants for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals at 0.45

  • 08:03 AM
    JOJoedaly
    $10.00

    Bought 17.857143 St. Louis Cardinals for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals at 0.56

  • 07:32 AM
    NInigiri99
    $11.66

    Bought 22 Over for San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 at 0.53

  • 06:23 AM
    0X0x8b81cCE898c3c9d737fcA82dbA70f7ebf418988C-1781024142222
    $1.00

    Bought 2.272728 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals at 0.44

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

9B1
0x9b11…5375
Event PnL
-$958.19
Volume
$8,278.20
Positions
San Francisco GiantsUnder
FE2
ferrariChampions2026
Event PnL
+$1,558.97
Volume
$8,042.62
Positions
St. Louis Cardinals
4F3
0x4f2
Event PnL
+$349.27
Volume
$6,137.51
Positions
St. Louis Cardinals
DI4
DimSumConnoisseur.
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$5,046.57
Positions
San Francisco Giants
MU5
Mustafa11223344
Event PnL
-$2,000.00
Volume
$4,255.32
Positions
Yes
NI6
nigiri99
Event PnL
+$507.35
Volume
$3,812.00
Positions
St. Louis CardinalsOverUnder
327
0x32b4…3653
Event PnL
-$843.19
Volume
$3,393.77
Positions
San Francisco Giants
388
38791873984189
Event PnL
+$388.71
Volume
$3,267.86
Positions
St. Louis CardinalsUnderUnder

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals"?

As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 43% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $132.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags NRFI as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 43% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 44% — an Expected Value gap of +1%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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