Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

$318K Vol
Sep 23, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Milwaukee Brewers 65.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 34.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 43.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $318K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • NRFI (43.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 44¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $7.9K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1NRFI43.5%$7.9K44¢57¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for September 15 at 6:40PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game.

This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies NRFI as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 43.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 48% — yielding an impressive +4.5% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFIBest EV43.5%48.0%+4.5%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 15, 2026

  • 10:10 PM
    0X0x9b75d34fBC7eCdD36556b360EeCea34F22a7409e-1779233897299
    $34.00

    Bought 99.99 Pittsburgh Pirates for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.34

  • 10:08 PM
    NEneutralwave23
    $64.65

    Bought 96.492536 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 10:05 PM
    EDedc001
    $200.00

    Bought 298.507463 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 10:05 PM
    CHCHAINPULL
    $1.00

    Bought 1.492536 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 10:04 PM
    WAwaltrapa
    $7.03

    Bought 20.68 Pittsburgh Pirates for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.34

  • 10:02 PM
    FOForMyFamily1
    $2,000.00

    Bought 2985.074627 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 10:02 PM
    NENewsGurus
    $15.50

    Sold 46.98 Pittsburgh Pirates for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.33

  • 10:01 PM
    NEneutralwave23
    $99.11

    Bought 147.925372 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 10:01 PM
    NEneutralwave23
    $93.26

    Bought 139.19403 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 10:00 PM
    POPocalium
    $4.69

    Bought 7 Milwaukee Brewers for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.67

  • 09:59 PM
    0X0xf5aA2A175c457F797A426E0B81C530287b064464-1720704803719
    $9.71

    Bought 28.558824 Pittsburgh Pirates for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.34

  • 09:59 PM
    UPUpTheBlues
    $269.45

    Bought 792.5 Pittsburgh Pirates for Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates at 0.34

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

DO1
Donkey14
Event PnL
+$206.00
Volume
$40,931.53
Positions
Milwaukee Brewers
FE2
Feromont
Event PnL
-$154.97
Volume
$30,999.99
Positions
Pittsburgh Pirates
VE3
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$30.00
Volume
$17,999.97
Positions
Pittsburgh PiratesMilwaukee Brewers
JD4
jdfngkdjfnfd
Event PnL
-$74.29
Volume
$14,861.76
Positions
Pittsburgh Pirates
NI5
nigiri99
Event PnL
+$107.56
Volume
$13,453.00
Positions
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh PiratesUnder+3
AN6
angelat0
Event PnL
-$65.03
Volume
$13,007.76
Positions
Milwaukee Brewers
HO7
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
+$90.82
Volume
$11,996.16
Positions
Milwaukee BrewersUnderPittsburgh Pirates+2
MA8
MAGATheeStallion
Event PnL
+$160.40
Volume
$10,693.00
Positions
Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates"?

As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 43.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $318K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags NRFI as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 43.5% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 48% — an Expected Value gap of +4.5%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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