Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

$312.6K Vol
Oct 1, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Seattle Mariners 54.5%
Houston Astros 45.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Houston Astros O/U 1.5 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,600% chance of winning. 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 follows in second place at 7,400%, while Seattle Mariners O/U 2.5 sits in third with 7,000%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $312.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Houston Astros O/U 1.5 (8,600%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Houston Astros O/U 1.5 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,600¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (7,400%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 maintains a 7,400% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 7,400¢.
  • Seattle Mariners O/U 2.5 (7,000%): Sitting in third place with a 7,000% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Seattle Mariners O/U 2.5, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

  • Alternative Options: This includes Houston Astros O/U 2.5 (6,600%), 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (5,850%), and Seattle Mariners O/U 3.5 (5,550%).
  • Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Houston Astros O/U 3.5 are still attracting notable interest.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Houston Astros O/U 1.58600.0%8600¢-8500¢
21st 5 Innings O/U 2.57400.0%7400¢-7300¢
3Seattle Mariners O/U 2.57000.0%7000¢-6900¢
4Houston Astros O/U 2.56600.0%6600¢-6500¢
51st 5 Innings O/U 3.55850.0%$95850¢-5750¢
6Seattle Mariners O/U 3.55550.0%5550¢-5450¢
7Houston Astros O/U 3.55200.0%5200¢-5100¢
8O/U 7.55150.0%$15.9K5150¢-5050¢
9NRFI4750.0%$6534750¢-4650¢
10Seattle Mariners O/U 5.54650.0%4650¢-4550¢
11Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners4550.0%$241.3K4550¢-4450¢
121st 5 Innings O/U 4.54450.0%$14.4K4450¢-4350¢
13O/U 8.54350.0%$4.2K4350¢-4250¢
14Seattle Mariners O/U 4.54100.0%4100¢-4000¢
15Houston Astros O/U 4.53850.0%3850¢-3750¢
16Spread -1.53650.0%$943650¢-3550¢
17Seattle Mariners O/U 6.53600.0%3600¢-3500¢
181st 5 Innings O/U 5.53450.0%$1.5K3450¢-3350¢
19Spread -1.53450.0%$943450¢-3350¢
20O/U 9.53350.0%$993350¢-3250¢
211st 5 Innings Spread -1.53250.0%$83250¢-3150¢
22Houston Astros O/U 5.52700.0%2700¢-2600¢
23Spread -2.52650.0%2650¢-2550¢
24Spread -2.52400.0%2400¢-2300¢
251st 5 Innings Spread -1.52200.0%$82200¢-2100¢
261st 5 Innings O/U 6.52200.0%$1222200¢-2100¢
27Extra Innings950.0%950¢-850¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for September 23 at 10:10PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game.

This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 24, 2026

  • 12:00 AM
    TOTooYoungToWin
    $2.45

    Bought 5 Under for Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 at 0.49

Sep 23, 2026

  • 11:53 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $10.31

    Bought 16.11 Houston Astros for Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) at 0.64

  • 11:53 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $26.42

    Bought 41.28 Houston Astros for Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) at 0.64

  • 11:51 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $23.84

    Bought 37.25 Houston Astros for Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) at 0.64

  • 11:42 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $22.39

    Bought 39.28 Under for Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 at 0.57

  • 11:39 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $83.82

    Bought 161.2 Over for Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 at 0.52

  • 11:32 PM
    FEferrariChampions2026
    $6,243.96

    Bought 16875.567568 Seattle Mariners for Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) at 0.37

  • 11:24 PM
    $17.60

    Bought 80 Over for Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 at 0.22

  • 10:53 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $96.40

    Bought 185.38 Over for Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 at 0.52

  • 10:52 PM
    DVdv-pm
    $3,045.76

    Bought 4759 Houston Astros for Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) at 0.64

  • 10:50 PM
    CHcharay12
    $7.22

    Bought 19.513514 Seattle Mariners for Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) at 0.37

  • 10:49 PM
    MOmooseborzoi
    $72.30

    Bought 139.04 Over for Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 at 0.52

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

NI1
nigiri99
Event PnL
+$253.80
Volume
$30,699.00
Positions
Houston AstrosHouston AstrosUnder+3
VE2
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
-$71.32
Volume
$16,807.09
Positions
Seattle MarinersSeattle MarinersOver+2
IM3
imjustkenisghey
Event PnL
-$177.06
Volume
$11,804.00
Positions
Seattle Mariners
FE4
ferrariChampions2026
Event PnL
+$69.37
Volume
$10,543.19
Positions
Over
MO5
mooseborzoi
Event PnL
-$14.78
Volume
$8,221.58
Positions
Houston AstrosHouston AstrosUnder+2
9F6
0x9f15…bdb3
Event PnL
-$363.72
Volume
$6,057.14
Positions
Over
SD7
SDTrading
Event PnL
-$12.57
Volume
$5,137.05
Positions
UnderHouston AstrosUnder
AE8
0xAE82…3024
Event PnL
+$101.02
Volume
$4,745.70
Positions
Houston AstrosUnder

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners"?

As of the latest update, Houston Astros O/U 1.5 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 8,600% win probability, followed by 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 7,400% and Seattle Mariners O/U 2.5 at 7,000%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $312.6K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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