Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,955% chance of winning. Chicago White Sox O/U 2.5 follows in second place at 8,600%, while Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians sits in third with 8,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $653K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 (9,955%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,955¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $3 in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- Chicago White Sox O/U 2.5 (8,600%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Chicago White Sox O/U 2.5 maintains a 8,600% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8,600¢.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians (8,350%): Sitting in third place with a 8,350% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.
🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)
Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:
- Alternative Options: This includes Chicago White Sox O/U 3.5 (7,700%), O/U 4.5 (7,150%), and Spread -1.5 (6,950%).
- Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Chicago White Sox O/U 4.5 are still attracting notable interest.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 9955.0% | $3 | 9955¢ | -9855¢ |
| 2 | Chicago White Sox O/U 2.5 | 8600.0% | $34 | 8600¢ | -8500¢ |
| 3 | Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | 8350.0% | $506.1K | 8350¢ | -8250¢ |
| 4 | Chicago White Sox O/U 3.5 | 7700.0% | — | 7700¢ | -7600¢ |
| 5 | O/U 4.5 | 7150.0% | $10.9K | 7150¢ | -7050¢ |
| 6 | Spread -1.5 | 6950.0% | $5.8K | 6950¢ | -6850¢ |
| 7 | Chicago White Sox O/U 4.5 | 6800.0% | — | 6800¢ | -6700¢ |
| 8 | Cleveland Guardians O/U 1.5 | 6700.0% | — | 6700¢ | -6600¢ |
| 9 | Cleveland Guardians O/U 2.5 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 10 | Cleveland Guardians O/U 3.5 | 5550.0% | $10 | 5550¢ | -5450¢ |
| 11 | O/U 5.5 | 5250.0% | $13.2K | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 12 | Spread -2.5 | 5200.0% | $895 | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 13 | Cleveland Guardians O/U 4.5 | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 14 | Extra Innings | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 15 | Cleveland Guardians O/U 5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 16 | O/U 6.5 | 4150.0% | $39.0K | 4150¢ | -4050¢ |
| 17 | O/U 7.5 | 2850.0% | $25.9K | 2850¢ | -2750¢ |
| 18 | O/U 8.5 | 2100.0% | $5.7K | 2100¢ | -2000¢ |
| 19 | Spread -1.5 | 550.0% | $5.8K | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 20 | Spread -2.5 | 445.0% | $895 | 445¢ | -345¢ |
| 21 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 22 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 45.0% | — | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 23 | 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 5.0% | $3 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 24 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 5.0% | $115 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 25 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 5.0% | $37 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 26 | 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 5.0% | $237 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
Result Rules
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for October 3 at 1:00PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game.
This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Oct 3, 2026
- 12:27 PM0X0xd6043FB053A1a688Ee9C9625249Ba0D58b66bd53-1770115245423$1.93
Bought 4.488373 Chicago White Sox for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.43
- 12:24 PM——$150.00
Bought 258.62069 Cleveland Guardians for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.58
- 12:17 PM0X0xd6043FB053A1a688Ee9C9625249Ba0D58b66bd53-1770115245423$290.43
Bought 675.42 Chicago White Sox for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.43
- 12:11 PMNInigaaaaaaa53$2.28
Bought 5.302326 Chicago White Sox for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.43
- 12:11 PMNInigaaaaaaa53$2.58
Bought 6 Chicago White Sox for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.43
- 12:06 PMSHsharpnochase$150.00
Bought 258.62069 Cleveland Guardians for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.58
- 12:02 PM0X0xe422D3D7862841f421a6bC3F20E1fFbB913326B1-1781102105411$5.00
Bought 11.627907 Chicago White Sox for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 0.43
- 11:58 AM——$9.56
Bought 31.866667 Chicago White Sox for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) at 0.3
- 11:57 AMDEDevstral$9.94
Bought 14 Cleveland Guardians for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) at 0.71
- 11:55 AM0X0x546a5166295433dddA571cdE5d077Fc46abD1988-1770842732162$3.55
Bought 5 Cleveland Guardians for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) at 0.71
- 11:55 AMFLFlaznorp$258.48
Bought 861.6 Chicago White Sox for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) at 0.3
- 11:55 AMYOyoucanbuythisbot$16.83
Bought 56.1 Chicago White Sox for Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) at 0.3
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians"?
As of the latest update, 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 9,955% win probability, followed by Chicago White Sox O/U 2.5 at 8,600% and Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians at 8,350%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $653K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
