Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

$431.2K Vol
Oct 12, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Los Angeles Dodgers 67.5%
Atlanta Braves 32.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 43.5% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $431.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • NRFI (43.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 44¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $33.4K in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1NRFI43.5%$33.4K44¢57¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for October 4 at 8:00PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game.

This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Most Overvalued Outcome NRFI currently trades at 43.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 40.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFI43.5%40.6%-2.9%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Oct 4, 2026

  • 12:20 PM
    YOyoucanbuythisbot
    $2.75

    Bought 6.25 Under for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 at 0.44

  • 12:20 PM
    FLFlaznorp
    $41.80

    Bought 95 Under for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 at 0.44

  • 12:20 PM
    FLFlaznorp
    $7.72

    Bought 17.545455 Under for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 at 0.44

  • 11:50 AM
    ORorange.fognumb
    $4.95

    Bought 9.711539 Under for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 at 0.51

  • 11:35 AM
    TOtonypartington
    $2.00

    Bought 4.651163 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.43

  • 11:34 AM
    ——
    $9.76

    Bought 16.542373 Los Angeles Dodgers for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.59

  • 11:17 AM
    33337
    $1.00

    Bought 1.785715 Over for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 at 0.56

  • 11:17 AM
    33337
    $1.00

    Bought 1.694914 Los Angeles Dodgers for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.59

  • 11:12 AM
    ——
    $200.34

    Bought 339.559321 Los Angeles Dodgers for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.59

  • 11:10 AM
    EUEugene-H.Krabs
    $59.00

    Bought 100 Los Angeles Dodgers for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.59

  • 11:06 AM
    0X0x33337a279F32F1c2763A8D6a4BfeE31dB99D6bc6-1770351177678
    $10.00

    Bought 16.949153 Los Angeles Dodgers for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.59

  • 11:06 AM
    ——
    $10.00

    Bought 23.809524 Atlanta Braves for Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 0.42

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

2C1
0x2c33…5465
Event PnL
+$2,982.57
Volume
$230,998.80
Positions
Los Angeles DodgersNoUnder
MO2
monkeymashingkeyboard
Event PnL
-$9,349.98
Volume
$109,999.71
Positions
Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves
MO3
mooseborzoii
Event PnL
-$1,051.26
Volume
$73,219.33
Positions
Atlanta BravesOver
NI4
nigiri99
Event PnL
+$7.85
Volume
$64,407.00
Positions
Los Angeles DodgersYesAtlanta Braves+1
WI5
wigglew
Event PnL
-$100.24
Volume
$25,249.47
Positions
Atlanta Braves
HO6
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
+$828.63
Volume
$20,766.20
Positions
OverOverLos Angeles Dodgers+2
IM7
imjustkenisghey
Event PnL
-$654.54
Volume
$19,828.00
Positions
Atlanta BravesUnder
WA8
wapol
Event PnL
-$865.42
Volume
$17,222.37
Positions
UnderUnderUnder+2

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers"?

As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 43.5% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $431.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?

Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around NRFI. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 43.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 40.6%, a negative EV Gap of -2.9% that signals the contract is overpriced.

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