Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, March 31, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 23.5% chance of winning. December 31, 2026 follows in second place at 15.5%, while November 30, 2026 sits in third with 4.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $99.6K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• March 31, 2027 (23.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, March 31, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 24¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $26.6K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31, 2026 (15.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31, 2026 maintains a 15.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 16¢.
• November 30, 2026 (4.5%): Sitting in third place with a 4.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 30, 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~56.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes November 15, 2026 (2.6%), November 8, 2026 (0.7%), and November 6, 2026 (0.4%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like November 15, 2026 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31, 2026 currently trades at 15.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 13.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -2%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies March 31, 2027 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 23.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 27.4% — yielding an impressive +3.9% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include November 8, 2026 (EV Gap: +0.8%) and November 15, 2026 (EV Gap: +0.8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.