Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, January 31, 2027 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 34% chance of winning. December 31, 2026 follows in second place at 22%, while November 30, 2026 sits in third with 17%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $83.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• January 31, 2027 (34%): Currently commanding the highest probability, January 31, 2027 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 34¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $14.5K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• December 31, 2026 (22%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, December 31, 2026 maintains a 22% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 22¢.
• November 30, 2026 (17%): Sitting in third place with a 17% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward November 30, 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines are in effect simultaneously on at least one calendar day (Israel time) from market creation through the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Basket Airlines are Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways. Each counts individually; their affiliates, subsidiaries, and group partners do not count.

A Qualifying Suspension is a halt of all Scheduled Passenger Service to and from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) by a Basket Airline, as actually observed, for a continuous period of at least 14 consecutive calendar days (Israel time), regardless of any announcement by the airline. It qualifies regardless of reason, including security conditions, airspace closures, regulatory instructions, or commercial decisions. Reduced frequencies, or the suspension of some routes while others continue, do not qualify. A Qualifying Suspension is in effect on any day within that period on which the airline operates no Scheduled Passenger Service to or from LLBG.

Airline announcements of suspensions, cancellations, or schedule changes will not be considered on their own; if any Scheduled Passenger Service flight to or from LLBG actually operates on a given day, that day will not count toward a Qualifying Suspension, regardless of any announcement.

Suspensions need not begin on the same day, but at least 3 must overlap on at least one day within the specified timeframe. A Qualifying Suspension that includes that day may begin before market creation or extend beyond the specified date to complete its 14 days, so this market may remain open for up to 14 days after the specified date; however, only days from market creation through the specified date can be the day of overlap.

Scheduled Passenger Service means passenger flights to or from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) operated by or on behalf of a Basket Airline under its own flight number and published schedule. Codeshare flights operated by another carrier, as well as cargo-only, charter, repatriation, evacuation, ferry, and positioning flights, do not count.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines (including published schedules and flight status data; airline announcements, such as press releases and travel advisories, may be used only as supporting evidence of whether qualifying flights actually operated); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31, 2026 currently trades at 22%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 18.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -3.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.