Lima Mayoral Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Lima Mayoral Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Rafael López Aliaga is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6,935% chance of winning. Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca follows in second place at 1,250%, while Francis James Allison Oyague sits in third with 650%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $124.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Rafael López Aliaga (6,935%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Rafael López Aliaga is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 6,935¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $6.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca (1,250%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca maintains a 1,250% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,250¢.
• Francis James Allison Oyague (650%): Sitting in third place with a 650% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Francis James Allison Oyague, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera (195%), Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli (160%), and Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué (90%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Samuel Marcos Daza Taype are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).