Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Amal Movement (Amal) is dominating the market with an overwhelming 0.9% chance of winning. Hezbollah (Hezb) follows in second place at 0.2%, while Lebanese Forces (LF) sits in third with 0.1%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $677.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Amal Movement (Amal) (0.9%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Amal Movement (Amal) is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 1¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $63.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Hezbollah (Hezb) (0.2%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Hezbollah (Hezb) maintains a 0.2% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 0¢.
• Lebanese Forces (LF) (0.1%): Sitting in third place with a 0.1% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Lebanese Forces (LF), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~98.9%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) (0.1%), Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) (0.1%), and Kataeb Party (Kataeb) (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) are still attracting notable interest.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament..

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Lebanese Forces (LF) as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 22.7% — yielding an impressive +22.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA) (EV Gap: +8.8%) and Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) (EV Gap: +8%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.