Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 6-9 points behind is dominating the market with an overwhelming 3,050% chance of winning. Runs ahead follows in second place at 2,600%, while 3-6 points behind sits in third with 2,550%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 6-9 points behind (3,050%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 6-9 points behind is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 3,050¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Runs ahead (2,600%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Runs ahead maintains a 2,600% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2,600¢.
• 3-6 points behind (2,550%): Sitting in third place with a 2,550% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 3-6 points behind, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 9+ points behind (2,450%), and 0-3 points behind (1,100%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 9+ points behind are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 Georgia general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, and Jon Ossoff is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Georgia.

This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Keisha Lance Bottoms’ vote share in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election falls below Jon Ossoff’s vote share in the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election. If Bottoms’ vote share exceeds Ossoff’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.

Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.

If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”

If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.

The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Georgia Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.