Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?

「Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、No が 7,050% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Yes が 2,950% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• No (7,050%)：最も高い確率を持つ No は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 7,050¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Yes (2,950%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Yes は 2,950% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 2,950¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will retire from politics by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, retiring from politics means permanently leaving all political office, including his seat in the Knesset, the office of Prime Minister, any ministerial post, and the leadership of Likud. A qualifying announcement must state that he is retiring from politics or from political life, or that he will leave all of these positions and will not seek political office again.

An announcement that he will step down from, or not seek, one or more of these positions while continuing to hold or seek another will not qualify (e.g., resigning as Prime Minister or as leader of Likud while remaining a Member of Knesset). An announcement will also not qualify if, as part of the same announcement, he states that he will seek or accept another political office, including the presidency of Israel.

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Netanyahu will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

Only definitive announcements will count. Statements that he is considering retirement, conditional statements (e.g., that he would retire if a certain event occurs), and announcements of a temporary leave or break from politics will not qualify. An announcement of a plea agreement, pardon, or similar arrangement will qualify if, as part of it, Netanyahu definitively commits to retiring from politics as defined above. Statements by third parties, including political allies or foreign leaders, will not qualify unless confirmed by Netanyahu or one of his official representatives.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Netanyahu or one of his official representatives.