Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

「Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、December 31, 2028 が 7,850% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。December 31, 2027 が 4,250% で2番手、December 31, 2026 が 650% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $74.7K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• December 31, 2028 (7,850%)：最も高い確率を持つ December 31, 2028 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 7,850¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $12.8K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• December 31, 2027 (4,250%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、December 31, 2027 は 4,250% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 4,250¢ で取引されています。
• December 31, 2026 (650%)：650% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は December 31, 2026 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI.

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.