Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

「Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Saudi Arabia が 1,650% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。China が 1,000% で2番手、Russia が 850% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $86K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Saudi Arabia (1,650%)：最も高い確率を持つ Saudi Arabia は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 1,650¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $13.8K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• China (1,000%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、China は 1,000% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 1,000¢ で取引されています。
• Russia (850%)：850% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Russia に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Iran (550%)、Anthropic (445%)、Meta (380%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Israel のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify.

For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual.

A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify.

Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI.

Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.