Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los?

「Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Blaze が 50% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Polar Bear が 5.8% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $89.2K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Blaze (50%)：最も高い確率を持つ Blaze は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 50¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Polar Bear (5.8%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Polar Bear は 5.8% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 6¢ で取引されています。

Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, without any of the three dying in-game.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a death message containing the specified mob's name is displayed for any of Jynxzi, Ron, or Los following an in-game death during the marathon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any death message containing the specified mob's name will count, including its plural and possessive forms, and regardless of how the mob caused the in-game death. The exact mob name must appear; a death message naming a different mob whose name contains the specified mob's name will not count. For example, an in-game death to a Wither Skeleton will not resolve "Skeleton" to "Yes," and an in-game death to a Cave Spider will not resolve "Spider" to "Yes."

An in-game death seeming to be caused by the specified mob will not count if the mob's name does not appear in the death message. If a mob has been renamed, this market will resolve based on the actual mob type that caused the in-game death rather than the name displayed in the death message.

A death message produced by any means other than an actual in-game death, including chat messages, overlays, or messages triggered by commands, will not count.

Only one qualifying in-game death is required, and it may be by any of the three players. This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately upon a qualifying in-game death.

Only in-game deaths of the three accounts played by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos will count. In-game deaths of any other player in the world, including guests, moderators, or co-streamers playing on their own accounts, will not count. It does not matter who is physically at the controls when an in-game death occurs; only whose account died in-game.

Deaths in any Minecraft world played as part of the marathon will count, including restarts on new seeds, and including if Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos modify or abandon the objectives of the challenge, change the ruleset, or play outside of Hardcore mode at any point.

Only in-game deaths occurring while at least one of the three players is broadcasting the marathon live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify.

This market will remain open until the marathon is declared complete, abandoned, or otherwise finally ended by Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, or Los Pollos, regardless of whether the challenge is completed. If the marathon ends without a qualifying in-game death, or if the marathon is cancelled or never begins, this market will resolve to "No". If the marathon is still ongoing as of November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on in-game deaths that have occurred up to that time."

The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the marathon on Jynxzi's, StableRonaldo's, and Los Pollos's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：Blaze は現在 50% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 38% です。これは -12% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。
• ベストバリュー（最高 EV）：当社のモデルは Polar Bear を盤面で最も妙味のある機会と特定しました。市場は 5.8% の取引確率しか与えていませんが、AI のフェアバリュー評価は 10.3% で、+4.5% という印象的な EV ギャップを生んでいます。