Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

「Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、American Airlines が 10.8% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。JetBlue が 9.5% で2番手、Frontier Airlines が 7% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $170.1K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• American Airlines (10.8%)：最も高い確率を持つ American Airlines は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 11¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $19.0K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• JetBlue (9.5%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、JetBlue は 9.5% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 9¢ で取引されています。
• Frontier Airlines (7%)：7% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Frontier Airlines に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 72.8%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Alaska Airlines (5.9%)、Allegiant (4.3%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Alaska Airlines のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

JetBlue Airways:

"JetBlue Airways" (or "JetBlue") refers to JetBlue Airways Corporation (Nasdaq: JBLU), the parent company of the JetBlue group, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, JetBlue Airways Corporation and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of JetBlue's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.

A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.

The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.

If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity.

A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.

Frontier Airlines:

"Frontier Airlines" refers to Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: ULCC), the parent company of the Frontier group, its operating subsidiary Frontier Airlines, Inc., or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of Frontier Airlines' business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.

A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.

The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.

If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity.

A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.

Allegiant:

"Allegiant" refers to Allegiant Travel Company (Nasdaq: ALGT), the parent company of the Allegiant group, its operating subsidiary Allegiant Air, LLC, or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, Allegiant Travel Company and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of Allegiant's business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.

A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.

The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.

If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity.

A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.

American Airlines:

"American Airlines" refers to American Airlines Group Inc. (Nasdaq: AAL), the parent company of the American Airlines group, its operating subsidiary American Airlines, Inc., or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, American Airlines Group Inc. and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of American Airlines' business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.

A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.

The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.

If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity.

A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.

Alaska Airlines:

"Alaska Airlines" refers to Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK), the parent company of the Alaska Air group, its operating subsidiary Alaska Airlines, Inc., or any other entity that is controlled by, or is under common control with, Alaska Air Group, Inc. and that holds, directly or indirectly, all or substantially all of Alaska Airlines' business and assets at the time of the filing or announcement. Unless named above, foreign entities, financing entities, special purpose vehicles, and entities used to separate specific legal liabilities will not qualify, even if they meet that test.

A filing for bankruptcy means a petition by an entity this market refers to (each, a "covered entity") under Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or a bankruptcy case for a covered entity filed in a court outside the United States under that country's bankruptcy or insolvency law, including a court-appointed administration. A petition filed against a covered entity by its creditors will qualify only if the court enters an order for relief on that petition by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement must state that a covered entity has decided to file for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy. Statements that the company is considering, exploring, or open to bankruptcy, or that bankruptcy is one of several options, will not qualify.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying announcement or filing occurred. Reports citing unnamed sources that a covered entity plans or is preparing to file will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying filing or announcement occurs, this market will resolve to "Yes" even if the petition is later withdrawn, dismissed, or converted, or the company later reverses its decision.

The following will not qualify on their own: a missed payment or other default on debt; a breach of a loan covenant; foreclosure or other enforcement action by creditors; a credit rating downgrade; a debt exchange or other restructuring agreed outside of court; the appointment of a receiver; and an assignment for the benefit of creditors.

If a covered entity stops existing because of a merger or similar transaction, it will no longer be a covered entity. If, after the merger, no covered entity remains, this market will resolve to "No". If the transaction only changes a covered entity's name, state of incorporation, or legal form, or places a new holding company over the same business, the resulting entity will be treated as that covered entity.

A filing occurs at the time recorded by the court. An announcement occurs at the time it is first published by a covered entity or its representative.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：American Airlines は現在 10.8% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 5% です。これは -5.8% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。
• ベストバリュー（最高 EV）：当社のモデルは Frontier Airlines を盤面で最も妙味のある機会と特定しました。市場は 7% の取引確率しか与えていませんが、AI のフェアバリュー評価は 17% で、+10% という印象的な EV ギャップを生んでいます。
• 見落とされたダークホース：その他の顕著な乖離には Allegiant（EV ギャップ：+4.9%） が含まれます。これらのロングテール機会は、予測モデルの強い統計的裏付けにもかかわらず、板で大幅に割安に放置されています。