Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner

「Victoria Legislative Council Election Winner」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Labor が 4,900% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Liberal–National が 4,200% で2番手、Greens が 3,500% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Labor (4,900%)：最も高い確率を持つ Labor は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 4,900¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Liberal–National (4,200%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Liberal–National は 4,200% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 4,200¢ で取引されています。
• Greens (3,500%)：3,500% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Greens に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：One Nation (3,500%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、One Nation のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Council (Victoria's upper house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all Legislative Council seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, including members elected from joint Liberal–National groups, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.

Each Legislative Council seat will be attributed to the party under whose name the elected candidate, or the elected candidate's group, appeared on the ballot paper.

Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the total number of Legislative Council seats won across all eight electoral regions. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of formal first-preference votes received in the Legislative Council election across all eight electoral regions, counting both above-the-line votes for the party's group and below-the-line first-preference votes for its candidates, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, including the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).