US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

「US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、December 31 が 6,050% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。October 31 が 3,350% で2番手、September 30 が 1,350% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $120.7K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• December 31 (6,050%)：最も高い確率を持つ December 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 6,050¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $24.8K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• October 31 (3,350%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、October 31 は 3,350% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 3,350¢ で取引されています。
• September 30 (1,350%)：1,350% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は September 30 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms.

Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs.

All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.

Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries or whether the agreement qualifies, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 14 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, the announcements will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Canada and a consensus of credible reporting.