US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

「US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、October 31 が 13% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。September 30 が 5.5% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $83K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• October 31 (13%)：最も高い確率を持つ October 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 13¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $28.8K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• September 30 (5.5%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、September 30 は 5.5% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 6¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.

The following do not qualify as official announcements:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.

Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• ベストバリュー（最高 EV）：当社のモデルは October 31 を盤面で最も妙味のある機会と特定しました。市場は 13% の取引確率しか与えていませんが、AI のフェアバリュー評価は 22.2% で、+9.2% という印象的な EV ギャップを生んでいます。
• 見落とされたダークホース：その他の顕著な乖離には September 30（EV ギャップ：+3.9%） が含まれます。これらのロングテール機会は、予測モデルの強い統計的裏付けにもかかわらず、板で大幅に割安に放置されています。