Saudi airspace closed by...?

「Saudi airspace closed by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、December 31 が 3,150% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。October 31 が 2,350% で2番手、September 30 が 1,750% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $632 に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• December 31 (3,150%)：最も高い確率を持つ December 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 3,150¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $20 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• October 31 (2,350%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、October 31 は 2,350% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 2,350¢ で取引されています。
• September 30 (1,750%)：1,750% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は September 30 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.

The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before market creation; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before market creation, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.

A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.