Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

「Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、No が 9,935% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Yes が 65% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $551K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• No (9,935%)：最も高い確率を持つ No は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 9,935¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Yes (65%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Yes は 65% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 65¢ で取引されています。

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.

The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.

If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.