Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?

「Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、January 31, 2027 が 34% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。December 31, 2026 が 22% で2番手、November 30, 2026 が 17% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $83.4K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• January 31, 2027 (34%)：最も高い確率を持つ January 31, 2027 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 34¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $14.5K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• December 31, 2026 (22%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、December 31, 2026 は 22% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 22¢ で取引されています。
• November 30, 2026 (17%)：17% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は November 30, 2026 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Qualifying Suspensions by at least 3 of the 5 Basket Airlines are in effect simultaneously on at least one calendar day (Israel time) from market creation through the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Basket Airlines are Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways. Each counts individually; their affiliates, subsidiaries, and group partners do not count.

A Qualifying Suspension is a halt of all Scheduled Passenger Service to and from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) by a Basket Airline, as actually observed, for a continuous period of at least 14 consecutive calendar days (Israel time), regardless of any announcement by the airline. It qualifies regardless of reason, including security conditions, airspace closures, regulatory instructions, or commercial decisions. Reduced frequencies, or the suspension of some routes while others continue, do not qualify. A Qualifying Suspension is in effect on any day within that period on which the airline operates no Scheduled Passenger Service to or from LLBG.

Airline announcements of suspensions, cancellations, or schedule changes will not be considered on their own; if any Scheduled Passenger Service flight to or from LLBG actually operates on a given day, that day will not count toward a Qualifying Suspension, regardless of any announcement.

Suspensions need not begin on the same day, but at least 3 must overlap on at least one day within the specified timeframe. A Qualifying Suspension that includes that day may begin before market creation or extend beyond the specified date to complete its 14 days, so this market may remain open for up to 14 days after the specified date; however, only days from market creation through the specified date can be the day of overlap.

Scheduled Passenger Service means passenger flights to or from Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) operated by or on behalf of a Basket Airline under its own flight number and published schedule. Codeshare flights operated by another carrier, as well as cargo-only, charter, repatriation, evacuation, ferry, and positioning flights, do not count.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official flight information from the Israel Airports Authority and the Basket Airlines (including published schedules and flight status data; airline announcements, such as press releases and travel advisories, may be used only as supporting evidence of whether qualifying flights actually operated); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：December 31, 2026 は現在 22% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 18.4% です。これは -3.6% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。