Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)

「Keisha Lance Bottoms runs behind Jon Ossoff by...? (First Round)」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、6-9 points behind が 3,050% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Runs ahead が 2,600% で2番手、3-6 points behind が 2,550% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• 6-9 points behind (3,050%)：最も高い確率を持つ 6-9 points behind は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 3,050¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Runs ahead (2,600%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Runs ahead は 2,600% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 2,600¢ で取引されています。
• 3-6 points behind (2,550%)：2,550% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は 3-6 points behind に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：9+ points behind (2,450%)、0-3 points behind (1,100%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、9+ points behind のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

The 2026 Georgia general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia, and Jon Ossoff is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Georgia.

This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Keisha Lance Bottoms’ vote share in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election falls below Jon Ossoff’s vote share in the 2026 Georgia U.S. Senate election. If Bottoms’ vote share exceeds Ossoff’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.

Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates.

If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”

If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.

The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Georgia Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.