Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?

「Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Resigned/removed; Over $4T が 56% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Resigned/removed; Under $4T が 44% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $145.3K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Resigned/removed; Over $4T (56%)：最も高い確率を持つ Resigned/removed; Over $4T は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 56¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $40.7K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Resigned/removed; Under $4T (44%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Resigned/removed; Under $4T は 44% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 44¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and (2) whether Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is above $4 trillion.

Options beginning "Resigned/removed" require Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA to be officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Options beginning "Not resigned/removed" require no such announcement by that time. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Over $4T" or "Under $4T"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".

Jensen Huang resignation or removal: The departure will be considered to be announced when Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Huang has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as CEO of NVIDIA. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as CEO, including to take another role at NVIDIA, and removal includes dismissal or termination by NVIDIA’s Board of Directors.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, this component will be "Resigned/removed" if a qualifying resignation or removal occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this component will be "Not resigned/removed".

The primary resolution sources for this component will be official information from Jensen Huang and NVIDIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nvidia market cap: This component is "Over $4T" if Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is $4 trillion or greater. Otherwise, it is "Under $4T".

Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this component is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：Resigned/removed; Over $4T は現在 56% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 43.4% です。これは -12.7% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。