Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

「Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、No が 8,150% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Yes が 1,850% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $130.4K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• No (8,150%)：最も高い確率を持つ No は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 8,150¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Yes (1,850%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Yes は 1,850% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 1,850¢ で取引されています。

On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.

For purposes of this market, an affiliated group of Iran is: any organization directly controlled by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Houthis ("Ansar Allah"), Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Badr Organization, and Harakat al-Nujaba. An unlisted group will only qualify if the Israeli claim itself, or accompanying statements or releases, specifies that the group is a proxy of or otherwise is controlled or directed by Iran. A general statement that it was conducted by an Iranian proxy will also qualify, even if no group is named.

Such a statement will be considered to claim that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident if it explicitly claims that Iran or an affiliated group ordered, carried out, planned, or otherwise directly aided or coordinated the incident. Statements that attribute only inspiration or ideological influence (e.g., "this would not have happened if Iran didn't radicalize terrorists," "the co-pilot was influenced by Hamas' ideas") will not qualify.

Once a qualifying announcement has been made, no subsequent walkback or retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli national government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.