Iran invades Kuwait by...?

「Iran invades Kuwait by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、December 31 が 600% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。October 31 が 280% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $1.1M に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• December 31 (600%)：最も高い確率を持つ December 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 600¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $712 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• October 31 (280%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、October 31 は 280% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 280¢ で取引されています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.

Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.

Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.

Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.

Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.