Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

「Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、December 31 が 48.5% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。November 30 が 38.5% で2番手、November 15 が 21% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $103.4K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• December 31 (48.5%)：最も高い確率を持つ December 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 49¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $5.2K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• November 30 (38.5%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、November 30 は 38.5% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 39¢ で取引されています。
• November 15 (21%)：21% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は November 15 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：October 31 (7.4%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、October 31 のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period during which neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against the other, following a qualifying military action (or market creation) that occurs on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

Only qualifying military actions that occur after market creation count. The 14-day period starts on the calendar day (ET) after the most recent qualifying action, or on the date of market creation if none has occurred after market creation. The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Each new qualifying action restarts the count.

This market resolves to "Yes" if such a full 14-day period is completed following either market creation or a qualifying action that occurred on or before the specified date (ET).

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that is either initiated by the Houthis and directly impacts Saudi Arabia, or initiated by Saudi Arabia and directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia or Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters, and “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia or Yemen respectively as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：November 30 は現在 38.5% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 28.6% です。これは -9.9% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。