French Presidential Election: United Right & Center Primary Announced?

「French Presidential Election: United Right & Center Primary Announced?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Yes が 5,000% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。No が 5,000% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに — に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Yes (5,000%)：最も高い確率を持つ Yes は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 5,000¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• No (5,000%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、No は 5,000% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 5,000¢ で取引されています。

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between this market's creation and April 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the holding of a united right and center primary for the first round of this election is officially announced. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "united right and center primary" is a primary election whose holding is officially announced jointly by Les Républicains and at least one of Renaissance or Horizons, and whose purpose is to designate a single candidate supported by all organizing parties in the first round of this election.

An official announcement requires that each qualifying party (Les Républicains, and Renaissance and/or Horizons) publicly confirms its participation in organizing the primary, e.g., by a decision of its leadership or governing body or a signed agreement between the parties. Statements merely proposing, calling for, agreeing in principle to, or negotiating a primary will not qualify.

A primary organized without Les Républicains, or without either Renaissance or Horizons, will not qualify, regardless of which other parties participate. Whether the primary is subsequently held will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed parties; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.