Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by...?

「Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、December 31 が 53% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。November 13 が 10% で2番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $147.5K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• December 31 (53%)：最も高い確率を持つ December 31 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 53¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $99.7K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• November 13 (10%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、November 13 は 10% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 10¢ で取引されています。

On November 8, 2026, Jensen Huang acknowledged in a message to NVIDIA employees that he had been unfaithful to his wife; news reports have identified the woman involved as Alice Huang. On November 11, 2026, The New York Times reported that Huang had also had an affair with Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA’s vice president of healthcare; Huang, Powell and NVIDIA have not confirmed that report. On November 12, 2026, Reuters reported that Huang had an intimate relationship with a second NVIDIA employee, whom it did not name.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a qualifying outlet publishes a qualifying report of an affair between Jensen Huang and any person other than Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell or the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An affair refers to a romantic or sexual relationship outside Jensen Huang’s marriage. The affair itself may have taken place at any time during his marriage; only the timing of the report matters.

The qualifying outlets are The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times, Reuters, the Associated Press, CNN, Bloomberg, ABC News, CBS News, NBC News and Fox News. Only news articles published on an outlet’s own platform qualify; editorials, opinion pieces, columns, broadcast or video segments, podcasts, social media posts and sponsored content will not qualify.

A report will qualify if it meets any of the following:

1. presents the affair as fact;

2. reports the affair based on the outlet’s own sourcing, such as people familiar with the matter, documents or recordings (as in The New York Times’ November 11, 2026 report on Kimberly Powell);

3. reports an alleged affair between Jensen Huang and a specific person other than Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell or the employee reported by Reuters, regardless of whether the outlet presents the allegation as credible; or

4. reports that Jensen Huang, directly or through his official or legal representatives, has acknowledged such an affair.

Reports under 1 or 2 qualify whether or not the person involved is named, provided they clearly distinguish that person from Alice Huang, Kimberly Powell and the unnamed NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters. A report does so if it, or other reporting from a qualifying outlet, makes clear that the person is not that employee (e.g., by describing them as a third NVIDIA employee with whom Huang had a relationship, or as someone who has never worked at NVIDIA), or if it confirms that Huang had affairs with at least four people.

The following will not qualify:

(i) reports that name or otherwise identify the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters;

(ii) reports about any person, named or unnamed, that do not make clear, on their own or together with other reporting from a qualifying outlet, that the person is not the NVIDIA employee reported by Reuters;

(iii) general references to Huang’s infidelity (e.g., “Huang has been unfaithful for a while”); and

(iv) allegations about an unnamed person that the outlet only relays from others, such as social media posts or other outlets’ reporting.

A report under 4 qualifies only if it reports an acknowledgment, including one in private testimony that has been made public, that names a person other than Alice Huang and Kimberly Powell who is distinguished from the employee reported by Reuters as described above, or makes clear that Huang was unfaithful with someone other than them (for example, by acknowledging affairs with four or more people). Reports of acknowledgments that are not explicit and unambiguous, or that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest or immediately clarified as not being genuine, will not qualify.

A qualifying report must be first published between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Reports that only reference or link to articles published before market creation will not qualify unless they themselves meet the requirements above. An article first published before market creation will qualify only if a later update first makes it meet the requirements above, in which case the time of the update governs.

The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the qualifying outlets; for acknowledgments, official information from Jensen Huang or his official or legal representatives may also be used.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：December 31 は現在 53% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 50.9% です。これは -2.1% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。
• ベストバリュー（最高 EV）：当社のモデルは November 13 を盤面で最も妙味のある機会と特定しました。市場は 10% の取引確率しか与えていませんが、AI のフェアバリュー評価は 12.8% で、+2.8% という印象的な EV ギャップを生んでいます。