Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?

「Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken が 96.8% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds が 2.9% で2番手、No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken が 0.3% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $106.9K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken (96.8%)：最も高い確率を持つ Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 97¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $45.7K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds (2.9%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds は 2.9% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 3¢ で取引されています。
• No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken (0.3%)：0.3% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds (0.1%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the United States refrains from a qualifying military action against Iran through the end of 2027.

Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Ceasefire holds" or "Ceasefire broken"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".

US-Iran ceasefire: This component is "Ceasefire broken" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise, it is "Ceasefire holds".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this component will remain undetermined until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past December 31, 2027, this component will remain undetermined to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this component will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers.

For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.

For seats contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the 2026 midterm election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the 2026 midterm election.

Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the 2026 midterm election, this component may remain undetermined until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for the House and Senate component will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

人間のコンセンサスと投機的出来高がより広い予測市場を形作る一方で、当社の定量アルゴリズムはデータ駆動の対抗的視点を提供します。ファンダメンタルなシグナル、基調トレンド、過去の分布を分析し、AI バリュエーションモデルは各結果に独立した「フェアバリュー」確率を算出します。

このフェアバリューを現在の取引価値と比較すると、大きな乖離——すなわち期待値（EV）ギャップ——が明らかになります。プラスの EV ギャップは統計的に割安な結果を、マイナスの EV ギャップは市場の過剰反応の可能性を示します。

トップ AI アルファ＆ミスプライス裁定機会

最新のデータモデル実行に基づき、いくつかの主要な契約が顕著な乖離を示しています：

• 最も過大評価された結果：Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken は現在 96.8% で取引されていますが、AI のフェアバリューはわずか 84.3% です。これは -12.5% という大きなマイナス EV ギャップを生み、群衆がこの結果を過剰に煽り、プレミアムを高くしすぎている可能性を示します。
• ベストバリュー（最高 EV）：当社のモデルは No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken を盤面で最も妙味のある機会と特定しました。市場は 0.3% の取引確率しか与えていませんが、AI のフェアバリュー評価は 7.2% で、+6.9% という印象的な EV ギャップを生んでいます。
• 見落とされたダークホース：その他の顕著な乖離には No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds（EV ギャップ：+1%）、Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds（EV ギャップ：+0.9%） が含まれます。これらのロングテール機会は、予測モデルの強い統計的裏付けにもかかわらず、板で大幅に割安に放置されています。