Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8.5% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 2.1%, while August 31 sits in third with 0.8%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $8.4M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (8.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $193.3K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (2.1%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 2.1% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2¢.
• August 31 (0.8%): Sitting in third place with a 0.8% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward August 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies September 30 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 2.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 4.4% — yielding an impressive +2.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include August 31 (EV Gap: +0.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.