Israel Election: Together vote share?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Israel Election: Together vote share?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 13%+ is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,800% chance of winning. <7% follows in second place at 4,500%, while 11-13% sits in third with 4,450%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 13%+ (4,800%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 13%+ is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,800¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• <7% (4,500%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, <7% maintains a 4,500% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,500¢.
• 11-13% (4,450%): Sitting in third place with a 4,450% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 11-13%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes 7-9% (4,200%), and 9-11% (4,200%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 7-9% are still attracting notable interest.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Together party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Together's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Together passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Together contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Together merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).