Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, July 15 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 13.3% chance of winning. August 31 follows in second place at 5.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $2.7M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• July 15 (13.3%): Currently commanding the highest probability, July 15 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 13¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• August 31 (5.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, August 31 maintains a 5.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 6¢.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.

A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).

Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:

1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.

2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.

Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies July 15 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 13.3% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 42.2% — yielding an impressive +29% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include August 31 (EV Gap: +13.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.