In which month will Anthropic IPO?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “In which month will Anthropic IPO?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, October 2026 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 63.5% chance of winning. November 2026 follows in second place at 22.2%, while September 2026 sits in third with 13%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $180.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• October 2026 (63.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, October 2026 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 64¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $43.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• November 2026 (22.2%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 2026 maintains a 22.2% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 22¢.
• September 2026 (13%): Sitting in third place with a 13% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward September 2026, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~1.3%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes February 2027 (6.5%), December 2026 (6%), and January 2027 (5.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like March 2027 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange.

An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing.

If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".

Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.

Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 2026 currently trades at 22.2%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 13.4%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies March 2027 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 5.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 28.2% — yielding an impressive +22.7% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include June 2027 (EV Gap: +8.5%) and May 2027 (EV Gap: +3.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.