Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by...?
Core Summary
According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.
Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 47.5% chance of winning. November 13 follows in second place at 7.6%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $130.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.
Breakdown of Competitive Tiers
To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:
🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader
- December 31 (47.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 48¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $118.3K in volume.
🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers
- November 13 (7.6%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, November 13 maintains a 7.6% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 8¢.
Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard
The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:
| Rank | Predicted Outcome | Win Probability | Trading Volume | Buy Yes (Cost) | Buy No (Cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 47.5% | $118.3K | 48¢ | 53¢ |
| 2 | November 13 | 7.6% | $5.2K | 8¢ | 92¢ |
Result Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps
While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.
Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.
Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities
Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:
- The Most Overvalued Outcome December 31 currently trades at 47.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 33.9%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -13.6%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 47.5% | 33.9% | -13.6% |
| November 13 | 7.6% | 5.8% | -1.8% |
Trade Activities
Here is the trade activities for this event.
Nov 13, 2026
- 01:05 PMFAfastandfudurious$8.20
Bought 20 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.41
- 01:03 PMHFhfv$12.38
Sold 20.64 No for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.6
- 01:03 PMHOHoechst$1.00
Bought 2.439025 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.41
- 01:03 PMHHHHR-TEST1$8.00
Bought 20 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.4
- 01:03 PM——$8.20
Bought 20.5 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.4
- 01:03 PMIMImSweating$7.80
Bought 19.5 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.4
- 01:03 PMLAlamyk$289.95
Bought 783.64 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.37
- 12:20 PMPAPavelIslimnitsky$1.00
Bought 2.777778 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.36
- 12:13 PMPUpurobillete$3.20
Sold 5 No for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.64
- 12:13 PMFAfastandfudurious$1.80
Bought 5 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.36
- 12:13 PMIMImSweating$1.80
Bought 5 Yes for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 30? at 0.36
- 12:01 PMSAsanlitouP2$19.40
Bought 20 No for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by November 13? at 0.97
Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current market consensus on "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by...?"?
As of the latest update, December 31 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 47.5% win probability, followed by November 13 at 7.6%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $130.3K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.
How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?
The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.
Is the market consensus overreacting to any specific outcome?
Yes — our data suggests a notable overreaction around December 31. The crowd has pushed its live Trade Value up to 47.5%, yet our Fair Value assessment puts its real likelihood at just 33.9%, a negative EV Gap of -13.6% that signals the contract is overpriced.